Why They Should Be on Your Radar
Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information. With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure.
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) earns a Zacks Rank #2 six days from its next quarterly earnings release on December 12, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.40 a share.
Broadcom Inc.’s Earnings ESP sits at 0.84%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.40 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.39.
AVGO is part of a big group of Computer and Technology stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Okta (OKTA) as well.
Okta is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on February 26, 2025. OKTA’s Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.71 a share 82 days from its next earnings release.
For Okta, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.69 is 3.11%.
AVGO and OKTA’s positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they’re reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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